State Of Fear

"Of course."



"Believe in it strongly?"



"Sure. Everybody does."



"When you have a strongly held belief, don't you think it's important to express that belief accurately?"



Evans was starting to sweat. He really felt like he was back in law school. "Well, sir, I guess¬ really, in this case. Because when you refer to global warming, everybody knows what you are talking about."



"Do they? I suspect that even you don't know what you are talking about."



Evans felt a burst of hot anger. Before he could check himself, he had blurted, "Look, just because I may not be expressing the fine details of the science"



"I'm not concerned about details, Mr. Evans. I'm concerned about the core of your strongly held beliefs. I suspect you have no basis for those beliefs."



"With all due respect, that's ridiculous." He caught his breath. "Sir."



"You mean you do have such a basis?"



"Of course I do."



Balder looked at him thoughtfully. He seemed pleased with himself. "In that case, you can be a great help to this lawsuit. Would you mind giving us an hour of your time?"



"Uh amp;I guess so."



"Would you mind if we videotaped you?"



"No, but amp;why?"



Balder turned to Jennifer Haynes, who said, "We're trying to establish a baseline for what a well-informed person such as yourself knows about global warming. To help us refine our jury presentation."



"Sort of a mock jury of one?"



"Exactly. We've interviewed several people already."



"Okay," Evans said. "I guess I could schedule that at some point."



"Now is a good time," Balder said. He turned to Jennifer. "Get your team together in room four."



"Of course I'd like to help," Evans said, "but I came here to get an overview"



"Because you've heard there are problems with the lawsuit? There aren't. But there are significant challenges," Balder said. He glanced at his watch. "I'm about to go into a meeting," he said. "You spend some time with Ms. Haynes, and when you're done, we'll talk about the litigation as I see it. Is that all right with you?"



There was nothing Evans could do but agree.



Chapter 11



VANUTU TEAM



TUESDAY, AUGUST 24



11:00 A.M.



They put him in a conference room at the end of a long table, and aimed the video camera at him from the far end. Just like a deposition, he thought.



Five young people drifted into the room and took seats at the table. All were casually dressed, in jeans and T-shirts. Jennifer Haynes introduced them so quickly that Evans didn't catch their names. She explained that they were all graduate students in different scientific disciplines.



While they were setting up, Jennifer slipped into a chair beside his and said, "I'm sorry John was so rough on you. He's frustrated and under a lot of pressure."



"From the case?"



"Yes."



"What kind of pressure?"



"This session may give you some idea what we're dealing with." She turned to the others. "Are we ready?"



Heads nodded, notebooks flipped open. The camera light came on. Jennifer said, "Interview with Peter Evans, of Hassle and Black, on Tuesday, August twenty-fourth. Mr. Evans, we'd like to go over your views about the evidence that supports global warming. This isn't a test; we'd just like to clarify how you think about the issue."



"Okay," Evans said.



"Let's begin informally. Tell us what you know about the evidence for global warming."



"Well," Evans said, "I know that temperatures around the globe have risen dramatically in the last twenty or thirty years as a result of increases in carbon dioxide that is released by industry when fossil fuels are burned."



"Okay. And by a dramatic rise in temperature, you mean how much?"



"I think about a degree."



"Fahrenheit or Celsius?"



"Fahrenheit."



"And this rise has occurred over twenty years?"



"Twenty or thirty, yes."



"And earlier in the twentieth century?"



"Temperatures went up then, too, but not as fast."



"Okay," she said. "Now I am going to show you a graph amp;" She pulled out a graph* on foam core backing:



Global Temperature 18802003 "Does this look familiar to you?" she asked.



"I've seen it before," Evans said.



"It's taken from the NASAGoddard data set used by the UN and other organizations. Do you consider the UN a trustworthy source?"



"Yes."



"So we can regard this graph as accurate? Unbiased? No monkey business?"



"Yes."



"Good. Do you know what this graph represents?"



Evans could read that much. He said, "It's the mean global temperature from all the weather stations around the world for the last hundred years or so."



"That's right," she said. "And how do you interpret this graph?"



"Well," he said, "it shows what I was describing." He pointed to the red line. "World temperatures have been rising since about 1890, but they start to go up steeply around 1970, when industrialization is most intense, which is the real proof of global warming."



"Okay," she said. "So the rapid increase in temperature since 1970 was caused by what?"



"Rising carbon dioxide levels from industrialization."



"Good. In other words, as the carbon dioxide goes up, the temperature goes up."



"Yes."



"All right. Now you mentioned the temperature started to rise from 1890, up to about 1940. And we see here that it did. What caused that rise? Carbon dioxide?"



"Um amp;I'm not sure."



"Because there was much less industrialization back in 1890, and yet look how temperatures go up. Was carbon dioxide rising in 1890?"



"I'm not sure."



"Actually, it was. Here is a graph showing carbon dioxide levels and temperature."



Global Temperature 18802003 "Okay," Evans said. "Just what you would expect. Carbon dioxide goes up, and makes temperatures go up."



"Good," she said. "Now I want to direct your attention to the period from 1940 to 1970. As you see, during that period the global temperature actually went down. You see that?"



"Yes amp;"



Global Temperature vs CO2 19401970 "Let me show you a closeup of that period." She took out another chart.



"This is a thirty-year period. One third of a century during which temperatures declined. Crops were damaged by frost in summer, glaciers in Europe advanced. What caused the decline?"



"I don't know."



"Was carbon dioxide rising during that period?"



"Yes."



"So, if rising carbon dioxide is the cause of rising temperatures, why didn't it cause temperatures to rise from 1940 to 1970?"



"I don't know," Evans said. "There must have been another factor. Or it could be an anomaly. There are anomalies within broad secular trends. Just look at the stock market."



"Does the stock market have anomalies that last thirty years?"



He shrugged. "Or it could have been soot. Or particulate matter in the air. There were a lot of particulates back then, before environmental laws took effect. Or maybe some other factor."



"These graphs show that carbon dioxide rose continuously, but temperature did not. It rose, then fell, then rose again. Even so, I take it you remain convinced that carbon dioxide has caused the most recent temperature rise?"



"Yes. Everybody knows that's the cause."



"Does this graph trouble you at all?"



"No," Evans said. "I admit it raises some questions, but then not everything is known about the climate. So, no. The graph doesn't trouble me."



"Okay, good. I'm glad to hear it. Let's move on. You said this graph was the average of weather stations around the world. How reliable is that weather data, do you think?"



"I have no idea."



"Well, for example, in the late nineteenth century, the data were generated by people going out to a little box and writing down the temperature twice a day. Maybe they forgot for a few days. Maybe somebody in their family was sick. They had to fill it in later."



"That was back then."



"Right. But how accurate do you think weather records are from Poland in the 1930s? Or Russian provinces since 1990?"



"Not very good, I would guess."



"And I would agree. So over the last hundred years, a fair number of reporting stations around the world may not have provided high-quality, reliable data."



"That could be," Evans said.



"Over the years, which country do you imagine has the best-maintained network of weather stations over a large area?"



"The US?"



"Right. I think there is no dispute about that. Here is another graph."



US Temperature 18802000 "Does this graph look like the first one we saw of world temperatures?"



"Not exactly."



"What is the change in temperature since 1880?"



"Looks like, uh, a third of a degree."



A third of a degree Celsius in a hundred and twenty years. Not very dramatic." She pointed to the graph. "And what was the warmest year of the last century?"



"Looks like 1934."



"Does this graph indicate to you that global warming is occurring?"



"Well. The temperature is going up."



"For the last thirty years, yes. But it went down for the previous thirty years. And current temperatures in the US are roughly the same as they were in the 1930s. So: Does this graph argue for global warming?"



"Yes," Evans said. "It's just not as dramatic in the US as it is in the rest of the world, but it's still happening."



"Does it trouble you that the most accurate temperature record shows the least warming?"



"No. Because global warming is a global phenomenon. It's not just the US."



"If you had to defend these graphs in a court of law, do you think you could persuade a jury of your position? Or would a jury look at the graph and say, this global warming stuff is nothing serious?"



"Leading the witness," he said, laughing.



In fact, Evans was feeling slightly uneasy. But only slightly. He'd heard such claims before, at environmental conferences. Industry hacks could slap together data that they had massaged and twisted, and give a convincing, well-prepared speech, and before Evans knew it, he'd start to doubt what he knew.



As if she were reading his mind, Jennifer said, "These graphs show solid data, Peter. Temperature records from Goddard Institute for Space Studies at Columbia University. Carbon dioxide levels from Mauna Loa and the Law Dome ice cores in Antarctica.* All generated by researchers who believe firmly in global warming."



"Yes," he said. "Because the overwhelming consensus of scientists around the world is that global warming is happening and it is a major worldwide threat."



"Okay, good," she said smoothly. "I'm glad that none of this changes your views. Let's turn to some other questions of interest. David?"



One of the graduate students leaned forward. "Mr. Evans, I'd like to talk to you about land use, the urban heat island effect, and satellite data on the temperature of the troposphere."



Evans thought, Oh Jesus. But he just nodded. "Okay amp;"



"One of the issues we're trying to address concerns how surface temperatures change with land use. Are you familiar with that issue?"



"Not really, no." He looked at his watch. "Frankly, you people are working at a level of detail that is beyond me. I just listen to what the scientists say"



"And we're preparing a lawsuit," Jennifer said, "based on what scientists say. This level of detail is where the suit will be fought."



"Fought?" Evans shrugged. "Who's going to fight it? Nobody with any stature. There isn't a reputable scientist in the world who doesn't believe in global warming."



"On that point, you are wrong," she said. "The defense will call full professors from MIT, Harvard, Columbia, Duke, Virginia, Colorado, UC Berkeley, and other prestigious schools. They will call the former president of the National Academy of Sciences. They may also call some Nobel Prize winners. They will bring in professors from England, from the Max Planck Institute in Germany, from Stockholm University in Sweden. These professors will argue that global warming is at best unproven, and at worst pure fantasy."



"Their research paid for by industry, no doubt."



"A few. Not all."



"Arch-conservatives. Neocons."



"The focus in litigation," she said, "will be on the data."



Evans looked at them and saw the concern on their faces. And he thought, They really believe they might lose this thing.



"But this is ridiculous," Evans said. "All you have to do is read the newspapers, or watch television"



"Newspapers and television are susceptible to carefully orchestrated media campaigns. Lawsuits are not."



"Then forget mass media," Evans said, "and just read the scientific journals"



"We do. They're not necessarily helpful to our side. Mr. Evans, we have a lot to go over. If you'd hold your protestations, we can get on with the issues."



It was at that moment that the phone buzzed, and Balder delivered him from his torment. "Send the guy from Hassle and Black into my office," he said. "I have ten minutes for him."



Chapter 12



VANUTU TEAM



TUESDAY, AUGUST 24



12:04 P.M.



Balder was ensconced in a glass-walled office, with his feet up on a glass desk, working his way through a stack of briefs and research papers. He didn't take his feet down as Evans came in.



"You find it interesting?" he said. He meant the interrogation.



"In a way," Evans said. "But if you'll pardon my saying so, I get the sense they're worried they might lose."